Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Frost 55.7% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 60.1%
Defensive zone
Tavares 50.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Tavares
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Tavares
Frost
Last 6: Tavares 5-1 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
55.0% (686)
+3.0%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
60.8% (166)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
100.0% (5)
-42.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +42.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Frost is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Tavares
Frost
Home
57.8% (614)
56.1% (428)
Away
57.8% (554)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Tavares
Frost
P1
58.0%
58.9%
P2
56.9%
55.4%
P3
58.4%
54.1%
OT
57.7%
70.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Frost
66.0%▲
60.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 12:56 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |