Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Frost 48.7% (+12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 79.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 55.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 77.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Tavares
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Tavares
Frost
Last 8: Tavares 5-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Tavares
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Frost
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
47.4% (426)
+13.5%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
63.9% (36)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
20.0% (5)
+27.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +27.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Frost is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (312).
Home / Away
Tavares
Frost
Home
63.5% (684)
51.1% (221)
Away
57.6% (658)
45.9% (246)
By Period
Tavares
Frost
P1
60.3%
47.5%
P2
60.4%
52.3%
P3
60.1%
44.7%
OT
92.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 16:14 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 07:41 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 14:33 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 01:58 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 06:38 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |