Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Frost 46.2% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 72.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 56.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 63.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Tavares
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Tavares
Frost
Last 7: Tavares 4-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
3
Tavares
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
45.6% (833)
+11.9%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
46.0% (100)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
55.6% (18)
+3.5%
On power play, Tavares has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Frost is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (625).
Home / Away
Tavares
Frost
Home
61.0% (661)
47.0% (440)
Away
55.3% (584)
44.8% (511)
By Period
Tavares
Frost
P1
58.6%
42.5%
P2
57.8%
47.9%
P3
58.4%
46.6%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
63.4%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 1 | 11:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 04:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:33 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |