Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Frost 49.5% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 70.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 80.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 77.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 78.4%
78.4%
21.6%
Tavares
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Tavares
Frost
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Tavares
Frost
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
48.6% (704)
+10.6%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
55.7% (115)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
25.0% (4)
+17.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
Tavares
Frost
Home
57.5% (668)
49.9% (399)
Away
61.1% (684)
49.1% (424)
By Period
Tavares
Frost
P1
58.0%
51.2%
P2
60.1%
53.9%
P3
61.0%
42.7%
OT
27.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 01:18 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 11:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:00 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 13:49 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 10:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:31 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |