Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Frost 51.1% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 54.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 76.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 74.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 65.0%
65.0%
35.0%
Tavares
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Tavares
Frost
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
3
Tavares
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
50.3% (825)
+7.4%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
54.9% (204)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
50.0% (4)
+6.4%
On even strength, Tavares has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Tavares
Frost
Home
59.7% (610)
50.7% (489)
Away
57.0% (698)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Tavares
Frost
P1
57.2%
53.6%
P2
58.5%
47.8%
P3
59.4%
52.0%
OT
46.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 04:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 02:55 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:01 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 14:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | John Tavares |