Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Geekie 44.9% (+15.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 94.1%
Defensive zone
Tavares 72.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 89.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 89.8%
89.8%
10.2%
Tavares
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Tavares
Geekie
Last 10: Tavares 8-2 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
1
Tavares
Geekie
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Geekie
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Geekie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
43.7% (584)
+15.5%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
47.1% (68)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
50.0% (8)
-7.1%
On even strength, Tavares has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Geekie is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Tavares
Geekie
Home
57.5% (668)
45.3% (329)
Away
61.1% (684)
42.9% (331)
By Period
Tavares
Geekie
P1
58.0%
41.2%
P2
60.1%
45.0%
P3
61.0%
46.2%
OT
27.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 03:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 02:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 18:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 05:28 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |