Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 53.8% vs MacKinnon 48.6% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 88.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 72.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 79.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 81.2%
81.2%
18.8%
Tavares
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Tavares
MacKinnon
Last 8: Tavares 7-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (1,077)
48.2% (849)
+5.8%
Power Play
54.5% (275)
51.0% (151)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (18)
44.7% (47)
+5.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tavares is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (476).
Tavares shoots left. MacKinnon is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Tavares
MacKinnon
Home
56.8% (655)
51.2% (521)
Away
51.6% (715)
45.6% (526)
By Period
Tavares
MacKinnon
P1
54.1%
49.9%
P2
53.9%
48.0%
P3
54.3%
47.9%
OT
54.2%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.9%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 17:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 13:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2015 | 3 | 02:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2015 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2015 | 3 | 00:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2015 | 2 | 19:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2015 | 1 | 19:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |