Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 55.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 63.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 62.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Tavares
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Tavares
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Tavares
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
49.2% (1,266)
+8.5%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
54.9% (193)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
49.1% (55)
+7.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Tavares
MacKinnon
Home
59.7% (610)
50.9% (740)
Away
57.0% (698)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Tavares
MacKinnon
P1
57.2%
50.9%
P2
58.5%
51.8%
P3
59.4%
47.1%
OT
46.7%
58.8%
Final 5 min
57.0%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |