Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 88.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 67.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 85.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Tavares
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Tavares
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
45.5% (1,190)
+13.7%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
56.4% (94)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
40.0% (30)
+2.9%
On even strength, Tavares has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Tavares
MacKinnon
Home
57.5% (668)
47.8% (670)
Away
61.1% (684)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Tavares
MacKinnon
P1
58.0%
45.3%
P2
60.1%
48.5%
P3
61.0%
45.0%
OT
27.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
60.7%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 15:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 16:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |