Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+15.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 77.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 50.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 69.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Tavares
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Tavares
MacKinnon
Last 7: Tavares 4-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
45.8% (755)
+15.1%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
48.3% (60)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
27.6% (29)
+20.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Tavares shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Tavares
MacKinnon
Home
63.5% (684)
49.5% (396)
Away
57.6% (658)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Tavares
MacKinnon
P1
60.3%
50.2%
P2
60.4%
43.8%
P3
60.1%
41.4%
OT
92.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.4%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 09:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 00:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 00:44 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | John Tavares |