Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 83.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 69.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 78.7%
21.3%
78.7%
Tavares
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Tavares
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Tavares
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Tavares
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
44.7% (1,053)
+12.8%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
36.8% (95)
+23.7%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
65.0% (20)
-5.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tavares is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Tavares shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Tavares
MacKinnon
Home
61.0% (661)
49.4% (553)
Away
55.3% (584)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Tavares
MacKinnon
P1
58.6%
45.3%
P2
57.8%
42.7%
P3
58.4%
45.1%
OT
66.7%
46.2%
Final 5 min
63.4%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 04:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 16:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |