Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 50.6%). Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Tavares wins 43.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 50.6% vs MacKinnon 50.5% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 70.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 63.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Tavares
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
13
(18 meetings)
5
13
Tavares
MacKinnon
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
8
Tavares
MacKinnon
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
5
Tavares
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (1,202)
49.3% (1,167)
-0.6%
Power Play
59.3% (305)
61.0% (187)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (121)
47.9% (167)
+0.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tavares is 43.5% vs right-shot opponents (556).
Tavares shoots left. MacKinnon is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,029).
Home / Away
Tavares
MacKinnon
Home
52.1% (841)
57.7% (728)
Away
49.0% (787)
44.0% (793)
By Period
Tavares
MacKinnon
P1
52.2%
50.1%
P2
50.7%
52.5%
P3
49.7%
49.3%
OT
37.9%
43.8%
Final 5 min
51.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2017 | 3 | 10:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 3 | 08:44 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 2 | 13:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 1 | 18:13 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 1 | 12:01 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 1 | 08:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2017 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 3 | 05:29 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 04:43 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 02:11 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 1 | 06:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |