Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Paul 53.3% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 52.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 68.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Tavares
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tavares
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Tavares
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
53.2% (327)
+4.8%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
61.4% (57)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
50.0% (32)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Tavares
Paul
Home
57.8% (614)
54.6% (183)
Away
57.8% (554)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Tavares
Paul
P1
58.0%
56.3%
P2
56.9%
54.8%
P3
58.4%
52.4%
OT
57.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
57.8%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:32 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |