Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Paul 50.4% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 65.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 60.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
Tavares
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Tavares
Paul
Last 9: Tavares 5-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Paul
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Tavares
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
53.0% (644)
+7.9%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
37.5% (24)
+22.9%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
42.9% (177)
+4.7%
On power play, Tavares has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Tavares
Paul
Home
63.5% (684)
52.5% (516)
Away
57.6% (658)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Tavares
Paul
P1
60.3%
47.6%
P2
60.4%
48.4%
P3
60.1%
54.5%
OT
92.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 17:02 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 05:47 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 05:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2022 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 4, 2022 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 4, 2022 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 15:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 12:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 06:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |