Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Paul 53.9% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 50.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 63.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 55.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Tavares
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Tavares
Paul
Last 10: Tavares 3-7 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
0
Tavares
Paul
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
7
Tavares
Paul
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Tavares
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
53.1% (710)
+6.1%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
57.3% (199)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
58.0% (69)
-15.1%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Tavares
Paul
Home
57.5% (668)
56.0% (466)
Away
61.1% (684)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Tavares
Paul
P1
58.0%
57.2%
P2
60.1%
54.9%
P3
61.0%
51.5%
OT
27.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
60.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 18:54 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:18 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 00:44 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 06:30 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:12 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Nick Paul |