Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Paul 50.0% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 57.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 80.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
Tavares
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Tavares
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Tavares
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
48.8% (666)
+8.9%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
53.8% (65)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
60.0% (55)
-3.6%
On even strength, Tavares has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Tavares
Paul
Home
59.7% (610)
49.7% (348)
Away
57.0% (698)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Tavares
Paul
P1
57.2%
51.0%
P2
58.5%
47.4%
P3
59.4%
51.5%
OT
46.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:05 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 3 | 14:53 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |