Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Paul 53.4% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 77.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 69.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 60.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Tavares
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Tavares
Paul
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Tavares
Paul
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
53.8% (753)
+3.7%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
58.9% (90)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
47.4% (78)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Tavares
Paul
Home
61.0% (661)
54.2% (450)
Away
55.3% (584)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Tavares
Paul
P1
58.6%
58.2%
P2
57.8%
50.6%
P3
58.4%
52.9%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
63.4%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 16:02 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 13:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 08:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 05:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 16:53 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 08:16 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 10:23 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 11:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 02:25 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 15:29 | Defensive | Nick Paul |