Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Tavares wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.7% vs Paul 51.7% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 16-14 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 75.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 78.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Tavares
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
16
(30 meetings)
14
16
Tavares
Paul
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
8
5
Tavares
Paul
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
8
Tavares
Paul
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
3
Tavares
Paul
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (692)
56.2% (274)
-1.7%
Power Play
59.1% (149)
52.9% (17)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
43.4% (129)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Tavares is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Tavares shoots left. Paul is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (283).
Home / Away
Tavares
Paul
Home
57.9% (404)
52.3% (235)
Away
52.9% (448)
51.9% (185)
By Period
Tavares
Paul
P1
54.2%
53.2%
P2
55.1%
53.8%
P3
56.4%
49.3%
OT
57.1%
55.6%
Final 5 min
57.1%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 13:59 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 13:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 08:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 08:04 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 04:37 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 13:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 13:39 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | OT | 00:47 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 07:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 18:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 3 | 17:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 3 | 03:09 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 07:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |