Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Roy 48.4% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 18-13 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 59.8%
Defensive zone
Roy 92.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 77.5%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 78.7%
21.3%
78.7%
Tavares
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
18
(31 meetings)
13
18
Tavares
Roy
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
1
Tavares
Roy
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
11
Tavares
Roy
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
5
6
Tavares
Roy
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
48.7% (3,719)
+5.3%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
49.5% (283)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
45.5% (477)
+5.1%
On power play, Tavares has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Tavares
Roy
Home
56.1% (10,503)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Tavares
Roy
P1
55.0%
50.8%
P2
54.1%
46.3%
P3
54.1%
48.1%
OT
55.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 19:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 09:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 06:19 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 11:25 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 11:18 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 09:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 01:28 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 14:20 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |