Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Roy 48.9% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 67.7%
Defensive zone
Roy 72.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 53.3%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Tavares
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Tavares
Roy
Last 8: Tavares 4-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
3
Tavares
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
49.5% (746)
+11.4%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
50.7% (75)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
42.7% (110)
+4.9%
On even strength, Tavares has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Tavares shoots left. Roy is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Tavares
Roy
Home
63.5% (684)
47.7% (491)
Away
57.6% (658)
50.0% (440)
By Period
Tavares
Roy
P1
60.3%
51.1%
P2
60.4%
44.6%
P3
60.1%
50.9%
OT
92.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
57.4%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 08:16 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 05:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 02:43 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 00:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 01:44 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |