Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Greig 50.6% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 80.7%
Defensive zone
Greig 79.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.4%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Tavares
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tavares
Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Greig
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
2
Tavares
Greig
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
51.5% (336)
+6.5%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
66.7% (24)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
43.2% (81)
+14.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Greig is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Home / Away
Tavares
Greig
Home
57.8% (614)
50.2% (247)
Away
57.8% (554)
51.5% (194)
By Period
Tavares
Greig
P1
58.0%
46.9%
P2
56.9%
58.8%
P3
58.4%
48.3%
OT
57.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |