Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +15.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Greig 45.0% (+15.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 55.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 82.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 73.2%
73.2%
26.8%
Tavares
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Tavares
Greig
Last 7: Tavares 5-2 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Greig
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
1
2
Tavares
Greig
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
45.2% (414)
+14.0%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
28.6% (14)
+31.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
28.6% (21)
+14.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Greig is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Tavares
Greig
Home
57.5% (668)
46.4% (196)
Away
61.1% (684)
41.9% (253)
By Period
Tavares
Greig
P1
58.0%
40.8%
P2
60.1%
46.4%
P3
61.0%
43.9%
OT
27.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 13:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 07:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 17:06 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 04:34 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 17:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |