Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Greig 48.8% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 90.1%
Defensive zone
Greig 61.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 78.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
Tavares
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Tavares
Greig
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Greig
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
4
Tavares
Greig
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Greig
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
48.5% (1,133)
+5.5%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
56.8% (74)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
46.5% (172)
+4.1%
On even strength, Tavares has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Greig is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Home / Away
Tavares
Greig
Home
56.1% (10,503)
49.8% (681)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
47.7% (698)
By Period
Tavares
Greig
P1
55.0%
46.3%
P2
54.1%
51.2%
P3
54.1%
48.8%
OT
55.9%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 13:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 07:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 17:06 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 04:34 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 17:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 06:31 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |