Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Carpenter 51.2% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 63.0%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 90.4%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 70.3%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 90.4%
9.6%
90.4%
Tavares
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Tavares
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
2
Tavares
Carpenter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
53.2% (299)
+7.7%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
33.3% (3)
+27.1%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
46.5% (86)
+1.1%
On power play, Tavares has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Tavares shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carpenter
Home
63.5% (684)
54.6% (207)
Away
57.6% (658)
48.1% (181)
By Period
Tavares
Carpenter
P1
60.3%
52.3%
P2
60.4%
51.5%
P3
60.1%
50.8%
Final 5 min
57.4%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 02:24 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |