Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 95.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 62.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 77.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 90.9%
90.9%
9.1%
Tavares
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Tavares
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
48.8% (404)
+10.4%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
100.0% (1)
-40.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
43.6% (101)
-0.7%
On power play, Carpenter has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carpenter
Home
57.5% (668)
48.9% (274)
Away
61.1% (684)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Tavares
Carpenter
P1
58.0%
51.9%
P2
60.1%
49.4%
P3
61.0%
41.8%
OT
27.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 03:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 17:51 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |