Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Carpenter leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 78.9%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 80.6%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 59.8%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Tavares
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Tavares
Carpenter
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
0
Tavares
Carpenter
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
6
Tavares
Carpenter
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
2
Tavares
Carpenter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
49.6% (2,027)
+4.4%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
41.5% (41)
+15.0%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
43.9% (467)
+6.7%
On power play, Tavares has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carpenter
Home
56.1% (10,503)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Tavares
Carpenter
P1
55.0%
49.6%
P2
54.1%
47.7%
P3
54.1%
48.0%
OT
55.9%
55.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 03:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 17:51 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 02:24 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 06:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 07:10 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 12:14 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 08:55 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 01:39 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 01:04 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |