Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Hartman 47.3% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 65.6%
Defensive zone
Hartman 65.2%
Neutral zone
Hartman 54.8%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Tavares
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tavares
Hartman
Last 6: Tavares 3-3 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
1
Tavares
Hartman
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
Tavares
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
47.1% (649)
+12.1%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
47.1% (68)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
45.2% (73)
-2.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Hartman is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (608).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hartman
Home
57.5% (668)
46.5% (361)
Away
61.1% (684)
47.3% (429)
By Period
Tavares
Hartman
P1
58.0%
45.1%
P2
60.1%
44.4%
P3
61.0%
50.9%
OT
27.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:31 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:17 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 05:10 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:15 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |