Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Poehling 47.4% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.0%
Defensive zone
Poehling 71.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 61.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Tavares
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Tavares
Poehling
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
5
Tavares
Poehling
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Poehling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
49.8% (626)
+8.2%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
58.3% (12)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
38.2% (207)
+19.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Tavares
Poehling
Home
57.8% (614)
47.3% (404)
Away
57.8% (554)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Tavares
Poehling
P1
58.0%
53.5%
P2
56.9%
39.4%
P3
58.4%
49.1%
OT
57.7%
35.7%
Final 5 min
57.8%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 18:31 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |