Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Poehling 49.2% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.6%
Defensive zone
Poehling 52.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 69.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Tavares
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Tavares
Poehling
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Poehling
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Poehling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
50.4% (752)
+8.8%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
37.0% (27)
+23.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
45.3% (159)
-2.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Poehling is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Home / Away
Tavares
Poehling
Home
57.5% (668)
51.2% (467)
Away
61.1% (684)
47.1% (471)
By Period
Tavares
Poehling
P1
58.0%
54.6%
P2
60.1%
46.7%
P3
61.0%
46.7%
OT
27.8%
42.9%
Final 5 min
60.7%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:45 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 10:50 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:11 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 01:55 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 12:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |