Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Poehling 50.8% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 94.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 51.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 79.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Tavares
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Tavares
Poehling
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Poehling
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
4
Tavares
Poehling
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Poehling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
52.6% (622)
+5.1%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
58.3% (12)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
39.8% (103)
+16.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Poehling is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Home / Away
Tavares
Poehling
Home
59.7% (610)
53.2% (393)
Away
57.0% (698)
48.3% (344)
By Period
Tavares
Poehling
P1
57.2%
50.9%
P2
58.5%
56.2%
P3
59.4%
46.1%
OT
46.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 01:45 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:02 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:35 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 02:14 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 02:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 03:06 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 02:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 03:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 16:52 | Neutral | John Tavares |