Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 12 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Poehling 48.1% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 28-13 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 98.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 73.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 89.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 85.1%
85.1%
14.9%
Tavares
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
28
-
13
(41 meetings)
28
13
Tavares
Poehling
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
12
0
Tavares
Poehling
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
7
11
Tavares
Poehling
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
2
Tavares
Poehling
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
49.4% (2,726)
+4.6%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
51.6% (93)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
41.6% (623)
+9.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Poehling is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,301).
Home / Away
Tavares
Poehling
Home
56.1% (10,503)
49.3% (1,688)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
46.9% (1,754)
By Period
Tavares
Poehling
P1
55.0%
50.9%
P2
54.1%
47.0%
P3
54.1%
46.9%
OT
55.9%
37.9%
Final 5 min
54.8%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 18:31 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 01:45 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:02 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:35 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 02:14 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |