Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 43.5% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 50.6% vs Gagner 48.0% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 58.7%
Defensive zone
Gagner 51.0%
Neutral zone
Gagner 56.0%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Tavares
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tavares
Gagner
Last 8: Tavares 3-5 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
3
Tavares
Gagner
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Gagner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (1,202)
46.5% (310)
+2.2%
Power Play
59.3% (305)
50.4% (115)
+8.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Tavares is 43.5% vs right-shot opponents (556).
Tavares shoots left. Gagner is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Tavares
Gagner
Home
52.1% (841)
52.4% (212)
Away
49.0% (787)
42.7% (213)
By Period
Tavares
Gagner
P1
52.2%
46.2%
P2
50.7%
52.2%
P3
49.7%
43.6%
OT
37.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.6%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2017 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 3 | 05:40 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 10:05 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 19:18 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 04:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 1 | 14:52 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 3 | 19:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | John Tavares |