Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Gagner 47.5% (+13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.0%
Defensive zone
Gagner 52.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 76.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Tavares
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Tavares
Gagner
Last 6: Tavares 4-2 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Gagner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Gagner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Tavares
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
51.3% (158)
+9.6%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
66.7% (36)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
33.6% (110)
+14.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Tavares shoots left. Gagner is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (240).
Home / Away
Tavares
Gagner
Home
63.5% (684)
53.2% (154)
Away
57.6% (658)
40.0% (150)
By Period
Tavares
Gagner
P1
60.3%
35.6%
P2
60.4%
52.7%
P3
60.1%
51.9%
OT
92.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
34.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 17:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 14:25 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 14:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 10:30 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 09:34 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |