Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Lafferty 50.9% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 89.3%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 66.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 78.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Tavares
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Tavares
Lafferty
Last 9: Tavares 6-3 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
0
Tavares
Lafferty
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
2
Tavares
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Lafferty
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
52.2% (366)
+5.3%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
60.0% (15)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
46.2% (104)
+12.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Tavares is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Tavares shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Tavares
Lafferty
Home
61.0% (661)
53.1% (258)
Away
55.3% (584)
48.9% (227)
By Period
Tavares
Lafferty
P1
58.6%
52.5%
P2
57.8%
49.7%
P3
58.4%
51.3%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
63.4%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 14:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 19:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 11:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 08:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |