Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +17.2% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Lafferty 43.9% (+17.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 76.6%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 51.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 65.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Tavares
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Tavares
Lafferty
Last 5: Tavares 3-2 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Lafferty
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Tavares
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Lafferty
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
42.6% (324)
+16.6%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
31.3% (16)
+28.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
43.8% (16)
-0.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +28.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Lafferty is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (268).
Home / Away
Tavares
Lafferty
Home
57.5% (668)
40.9% (181)
Away
61.1% (684)
43.4% (175)
By Period
Tavares
Lafferty
P1
58.0%
42.2%
P2
60.1%
36.4%
P3
61.0%
48.6%
Final 5 min
60.7%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 03:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 02:54 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 15:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 05:43 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |