Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Steel 50.6% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 59.4%
Defensive zone
Steel 76.3%
Neutral zone
Steel 55.5%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 76.3%
23.7%
76.3%
Tavares
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tavares
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Tavares
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
52.5% (200)
+5.5%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
71.4% (7)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
40.0% (45)
+17.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Steel is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Tavares
Steel
Home
57.8% (614)
49.5% (109)
Away
57.8% (554)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Tavares
Steel
P1
58.0%
49.5%
P2
56.9%
47.5%
P3
58.4%
56.6%
OT
57.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Sam Steel |