Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Steel 50.2% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 90.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 73.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 76.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 81.3%
81.3%
18.7%
Tavares
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
4
(15 meetings)
11
4
Tavares
Steel
Last 10: Tavares 8-2 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
2
Tavares
Steel
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Steel
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
50.6% (2,876)
+3.4%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
62.6% (179)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
37.4% (254)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
Tavares
Steel
Home
56.1% (10,503)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Tavares
Steel
P1
55.0%
51.9%
P2
54.1%
49.5%
P3
54.1%
49.6%
OT
55.9%
41.9%
Final 5 min
54.8%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:20 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 02:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 14:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 01:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 09:53 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 3 | 16:33 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | John Tavares |