Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Kuraly 50.1% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 72.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 64.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
Tavares
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Tavares
Kuraly
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
2
Tavares
Kuraly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Tavares
Kuraly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Tavares
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
51.8% (444)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
45.3% (150)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kuraly
Home
57.8% (614)
54.6% (304)
Away
57.8% (554)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Tavares
Kuraly
P1
58.0%
55.2%
P2
56.9%
45.7%
P3
58.4%
49.5%
OT
57.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 16:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 08:36 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:08 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:50 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |