Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 36 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Kuraly 50.3% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 54-38 in 92 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 92.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 71.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 67.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Tavares
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
54
-
38
(92 meetings)
54
38
Tavares
Kuraly
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
31
5
Tavares
Kuraly
36 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
11
20
Tavares
Kuraly
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
12
13
Tavares
Kuraly
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
51.5% (5,141)
+2.5%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
56.0% (100)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
44.2% (1,086)
+6.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kuraly
Home
56.1% (10,503)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
Tavares
Kuraly
P1
55.0%
51.1%
P2
54.1%
49.9%
P3
54.1%
50.0%
OT
55.9%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 16:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 08:36 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:08 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:50 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 06:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |