Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Kuraly 49.7% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 17-15 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 84.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 63.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Tavares
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
15
(32 meetings)
17
15
Tavares
Kuraly
Last 10: Tavares 8-2 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
8
1
Tavares
Kuraly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
9
Tavares
Kuraly
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
5
Tavares
Kuraly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
49.2% (901)
+8.3%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
68.2% (22)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
49.8% (219)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Kuraly is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kuraly
Home
61.0% (661)
51.7% (603)
Away
55.3% (584)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Tavares
Kuraly
P1
58.6%
50.9%
P2
57.8%
49.5%
P3
58.4%
49.1%
OT
66.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
63.4%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 08:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 05:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 05:16 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 12:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 06:38 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 05:46 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 08:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 04:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 15:41 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 10, 2023 | 3 | 14:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |