Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Kuraly 49.5% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 17-11 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 60.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 81.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Tavares
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
11
(28 meetings)
17
11
Tavares
Kuraly
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
11
1
Tavares
Kuraly
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
6
Tavares
Kuraly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
4
Tavares
Kuraly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
52.3% (982)
+8.6%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
41.9% (43)
+18.5%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
39.2% (245)
+8.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Kuraly is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (859).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kuraly
Home
63.5% (684)
50.3% (680)
Away
57.6% (658)
48.5% (590)
By Period
Tavares
Kuraly
P1
60.3%
49.5%
P2
60.4%
49.6%
P3
60.1%
49.0%
OT
92.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.4%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2022 | 3 | 13:52 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 3 | 10:27 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 3 | 04:19 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 3 | 02:28 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 2 | 16:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 2 | 14:34 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 2 | 07:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 1 | 16:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 1 | 05:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 19:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 19:11 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 01:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 14:15 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:36 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |