Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Stamkos 54.4% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 51.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 54.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 54.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Tavares
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tavares
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Tavares
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
55.8% (339)
+2.2%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
53.3% (90)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
62.5% (8)
-4.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stamkos
Home
57.8% (614)
53.4% (208)
Away
57.8% (554)
57.2% (229)
By Period
Tavares
Stamkos
P1
58.0%
55.3%
P2
56.9%
52.5%
P3
58.4%
58.9%
OT
57.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
57.8%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Stamkos
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |