Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 69.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 63.6%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 56.3%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Tavares
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Tavares
Stamkos
Last 8: Tavares 4-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Tavares
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Tavares
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
49.3% (670)
+8.4%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
53.7% (121)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
33.3% (3)
+23.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stamkos
Home
59.7% (610)
54.0% (400)
Away
57.0% (698)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Tavares
Stamkos
P1
57.2%
48.6%
P2
58.5%
54.5%
P3
59.4%
45.4%
OT
46.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 13:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 14:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:31 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 16:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 16:38 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 10:35 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |