Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Stamkos 53.4% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 71.1%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 53.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 68.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 65.0%
65.0%
35.0%
Tavares
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tavares
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Tavares
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
55.3% (628)
+2.2%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
55.1% (216)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
40.2% (87)
+18.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tavares is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Tavares shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stamkos
Home
61.0% (661)
55.5% (499)
Away
55.3% (584)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Tavares
Stamkos
P1
58.6%
50.7%
P2
57.8%
53.8%
P3
58.4%
55.9%
OT
66.7%
87.5%
Final 5 min
63.4%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 02:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 14:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |