Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 79.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 51.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 75.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
Tavares
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
Tavares
Stamkos
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
1
Tavares
Stamkos
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
4
6
Tavares
Stamkos
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
49.3% (789)
+11.6%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
56.9% (181)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
54.1% (98)
-6.5%
On even strength, Tavares has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Tavares shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stamkos
Home
63.5% (684)
52.0% (512)
Away
57.6% (658)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Tavares
Stamkos
P1
60.3%
42.1%
P2
60.4%
56.4%
P3
60.1%
53.7%
OT
92.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
57.4%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 02:35 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 02:28 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 4, 2022 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 4, 2022 | 2 | 12:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2022 | 2 | 06:17 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2022 | 2 | 06:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2022 | 1 | 07:21 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2022 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 14:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 08:51 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 06:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 03:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 04:08 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 13:45 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 00:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 11:07 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |