Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Stamkos 55.2% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 68.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 58.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Tavares
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Tavares
Stamkos
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
1
Tavares
Stamkos
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Tavares
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Tavares
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
55.9% (499)
+3.3%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
56.3% (126)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
58.3% (12)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stamkos
Home
57.5% (668)
55.3% (349)
Away
61.1% (684)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Tavares
Stamkos
P1
58.0%
57.0%
P2
60.1%
59.2%
P3
61.0%
51.5%
OT
27.8%
55.6%
Final 5 min
60.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 13:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 00:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 03:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:08 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 12:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |