Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.6%). Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 43.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 49.4% vs Stamkos 49.6% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 69.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 58.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Tavares
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Tavares
Stamkos
Last 9: Tavares 3-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
5
Tavares
Stamkos
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (716)
48.1% (669)
+0.5%
Power Play
52.4% (208)
58.2% (110)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
50.0% (40)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tavares is 43.7% vs right-shot opponents (398).
Tavares shoots left. Stamkos is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stamkos
Home
50.7% (448)
52.0% (402)
Away
48.1% (482)
47.2% (417)
By Period
Tavares
Stamkos
P1
52.8%
46.3%
P2
51.4%
52.4%
P3
43.7%
50.2%
OT
54.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2013 | 3 | 18:31 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2013 | 3 | 01:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2013 | 3 | 01:31 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2013 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2013 | 1 | 18:24 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2013 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |