Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 43.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 50.6% vs Stamkos 52.3% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 62.0%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 70.9%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 54.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Tavares
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Tavares
Stamkos
Last 7: Tavares 4-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Tavares
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (1,202)
54.7% (179)
-6.0%
Power Play
59.3% (305)
50.0% (4)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (121)
40.0% (15)
+7.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tavares is 43.5% vs right-shot opponents (556).
Tavares shoots left. Stamkos is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (128).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stamkos
Home
52.1% (841)
57.4% (108)
Away
49.0% (787)
48.9% (90)
By Period
Tavares
Stamkos
P1
52.2%
53.4%
P2
50.7%
51.7%
P3
49.7%
55.6%
OT
37.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2016 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 3 | 18:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2 | 09:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2 | 07:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |