Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 60.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.0% vs Novak 44.0% (+14.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 77.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 89.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 93.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Tavares
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tavares
Novak
Last 7: Tavares 6-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (1,092)
42.7% (466)
+15.3%
Power Play
56.2% (276)
44.7% (38)
+11.5%
On even strength, Tavares has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Tavares is 60.6% vs left-shot opponents (904).
Tavares shoots left. Novak is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (328).
Home / Away
Tavares
Novak
Home
57.7% (702)
43.0% (244)
Away
57.4% (690)
42.7% (260)
By Period
Tavares
Novak
P1
57.4%
42.2%
P2
57.5%
43.5%
P3
57.8%
43.2%
OT
55.2%
25.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
56.0%▬
57.0%
57.5%
Novak
62.0%▲
46.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |