Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Novak 45.0% (+15.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 78.2%
Defensive zone
Novak 67.6%
Neutral zone
Novak 76.3%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 78.2%
21.8%
78.2%
Tavares
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Tavares
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Tavares
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
42.9% (198)
+14.8%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
40.9% (22)
+19.6%
On power play, Tavares has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Novak is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Tavares
Novak
Home
59.7% (610)
40.9% (110)
Away
57.0% (698)
44.5% (110)
By Period
Tavares
Novak
P1
57.2%
39.1%
P2
58.5%
43.9%
P3
59.4%
44.9%
OT
46.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:36 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |